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Flu season on the decline

Last updated on 
Flu season on the decline

Respiratory diseases

  • COVID-19: ↘️
  • ILI: ↘️
  • RSV: ↘️
  • Seasonal coronaviruses: ↗️
  • Don’t miss the reader poll at the end

Influenza-like illness continues a brisk decline. During the week ending January 7, just 4% of visits to the doctor were for influenza-like illness (ILI), down from a high of 7.5% at the end of November. There are improvements in all age groups, including children. Outbreaks in long term care facilities are down, and so too are the number of people hospitalized with influenza. However, bear in mind that we are well above baseline and so flu season is still underway.

Outpatient visits for respiratory illness for week ending January 7, 2023. Source. Annotations mine.

For the first time in months, we’re seeing a splash of green on the ILI activity map. Just 23 jurisdictions are experiencing high or very high levels of ILI activity, down from 43 just last week. ILI activity seems to be dropping pretty consistently across all regions. Seventeen jurisdictions have low or minimal activity.

New Mexico, New York City, and several other jurisdictions across the country remain in the “very high” category.

Influenza-like illness activity by state for week ending January 7, 2023. Source.

COVID-19 has also turned a corner, at least at the national level. The number of confirmed cases is down slightly, as is test positivity and wastewater indicators. More importantly, hospitalizations have begun to decline, especially among older adults. However, there are important differences at the state and regional level. The Southern and Northeastern regions of the country have the most COVID-19 activity. North Carolina and Delaware, in particular, have high rates of hospitalization, and they do not yet show signs of improvement.

Daily COVID-19 hospitalizations by age. Source: New York Times

RSV activity is still dropping.

We may be at peak for the seasonal coronaviruses. The percent of tests that are positive has begun to drop according to data from Biofire and CDC—but only in the Northeastern region. The percent of tests that are positive is still rising in the other regions. There are seven known human coronaviruses, three of which can cause severe illness: Covid-19, SARS, and MERS. The other four mostly cause mild, cold-like symptoms and circulate regularly. Two of these mild, seasonal coronaviruses are currently on the rise.

Seasonal coronavirus activity in the Northeastern region. Source.

Food recalls

The following foods are being recalled because they are contaminated with bacteria that causes food poisoning. Please check your cupboards and throw out any of these items:

New this week:

  • A recall of Enoki mushrooms sold by Utopia Foods Inc has been expanded to include packages with best by dates of 03/02/2023 and 03.09.23. The mushrooms were sold to wholesale companies in NY, NJ and CT. (more info)

Previously reported:

  • Frozen manicotti by Caesar’s Pasta, sold to restaurant distributors in Pennsylvania, New York and Puerto Rico (more info)
  • Raw, frozen diced beef sold by Morasch Meats (more info)
  • Whole Nutrition Infant Formula, Milk Based Powder with Iron for 0-12 months (more info)
  • James Farm frozen raspberries sold through Restaurant Depot/Jetro (more info)
  • Kraft ready-to-eat ham and cheese loaf products (more info)
  • Nestle edible Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough tubs with best-by dates of January 28-30, 2023 (more info)
  • There is also a multi-state outbreak of Listeria linked to deli meats and cheeses, but the specific source has not been identified. If you are pregnant, over the age of 65, or have a condition that weakens your immune system, consider avoiding meat or cheese from deli counters. (more info)
  • If you have food allergies, you may wish to review these FDA safety alerts for foods with undeclared allergens.

More news

  • The outbreak of Ebola disease in Uganda has officially ended now that two full incubation periods have passed with no new cases. Congratulations, Uganda!
  • The average number of daily new cases of mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) in the U.S. is now below five. I hope we reach elimination in the U.S. in 2023.
  • In the emailed version of the newsletter last week, I said that private insurers reimburse for six over the counter COVID-19 tests per person per month. It’s actually eight! The online version was corrected shortly after publication.
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Reader poll

As flu season winds down (fingers crossed), I expect I’ll have less to share with you each week. What other kinds of content would you like to see on this newsletter?

Broader news you can use: Are you curious about the recent news that gas stoves are harmful to respiratory health? Did you enjoy last week’s recommendations for brushing up on first aid skills? This one is for you.

Emerging infectious diseases: News and discussion about outbreaks like Ebola, Nipah, hantavirus, and other emerging infectious diseases.

Parenting and productivity: A wildcard choice, brought to you by my dismay that it’s already time to reserve summer camp spots. Do you want a place to discuss how it all does (or, often, does not) get done?

None — my inbox is full: For those of you who only want emails on a need-to-know basis.