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6 min read National Report

Outbreak Outlook - May 24

Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak in the DRC declared a public health emergency, with ~750 suspected cases and no approved vaccine. At home, respiratory viruses are low but norovirus stays elevated in the South and West.

Outbreak Outlook - May 24
Photo by Wolfgang Hasselmann / Unsplash

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Influenza-like illness

We continue to navigate this off-season as expected. Trips to the doctor for fever, cough and sore throat (known as influenza-like illness, or ILI) are stable at 1.8%. 

At the regional level, the Midwest is reporting the lowest levels of ILI at 1%, which is nevertheless a slight notch higher than last week (0.9%; this is not a meaningful difference). The West continues to be a tad higher than the national average, but holds steady at 2.1%. 

Severe flu continues to decline. Flu-related hospitalizations are lower than last week at 0.2 per 100,000, and emergency department (ED) visits for influenza are very low at 0.3%, down from 0.4% the week prior.

ED visits in the West are at 0.5%, a bit higher than the national average. The drop in ED visits in the West can be attributed to noticeable decreases in Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington, and New Mexico. 

Lower hospitalizations in the South and the West have contributed to this week’s lower national trend, however, there has been a noticeable increase in flu-related hospitalizations in the Midwest, from 0.2 to almost 0.5 per 100,000. This bump is primarily driven by an increase in hospitalizations in Michigan (from 0.2 to 0.6) and, to a lesser extent, in Minnesota (from 0.2 to 0.3).

By age groups

Trips to the doctor for fever, cough and sore throat for infants and young children from 0 to 4 years are now at 5.6%, while for young people ages 5 to 24 years we are at 2.7%, both figures slightly lower than last week. Six influenza-associated deaths were reported this past week, for a total of 172 deaths this season (note: death reporting is often delayed, so these deaths may not necessarily be recent). Activity in adults continues to be lower than 1.5%, while activity in the 50+ age groups remains below 1%.

Covid-19

Covid-19 is low in most areas of the country, and wastewater concentration reflects this trend. The South has a slightly higher wastewater concentration than the rest of the country, but continues to trend downward.

Trips to the emergency department are low nationally, and the Midwest registered a higher drop in ED visits for Covid-19 than other regions. All regions of the country continue to be below 0.2%.

Hospitalization rates for Covid-19 dropped further to 0.1 per 100,000 population, down from 0.3 per 100,000 the week prior. The Northeast, which continues to be slightly higher than the national average, also dipped from 0.5 to 0.3 per 100,000. This was primarily driven by New York, where hospitalizations decreased from 0.8 to 0.3 per 100,000.

RSV

RSV activity continues to be low and stable across the United States. Emergency department (ED) visits across the country are at 0.1%, with the Midwest slightly higher towards 0.2% but lower than last week.

Hospitalizations for RSV have fallen further to 0.4 per 100,000, but remain slightly higher in the Northeast (0.5). The Midwest experienced a noticeable drop from last week and is now at 0.3 per 100,000, with Michigan and Minnesota most improved.

Other Stomach Bugs

Norovirus activity continues to be elevated with national test positivity at 12%. Test positivity is highest in the South and West at around 16%. Though less elevated, the Midwest continues to see an uptick in Norovirus activity. The Northeast recorded the least Norovirus activity and dropped further to 6%.

Rotavirus test positivity is stable at around 6%. The Western region has the highest activity at 9% and continues to rise, most likely due to lower vaccination rates.

Food Recalls

The following foods are being recalled because they are contaminated and can pose a health risk to you and your family. Please check your cupboards and discard any of these items:

Previously reported

In Other News

Ebola outbreak update: On May 17, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Ebola disease outbreak in the Ituri province of northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) a public health emergency of international concern. This past week WHO saw a surge in suspected Ebola cases caused by the Bundibugyo virus in the DRC and Uganda. As of May 22, there have been nearly 750 suspected cases and 177 suspected deaths. Neighboring Uganda has confirmed 5 cases and 1 death. One American who was working in the DRC has been confirmed positive and has been transferred to Germany for isolation and care. Another American who is a high risk contact, has been transferred to the Czech Republic, also for isolation and care.

The incubation period for the Bundibugyo virus ranges from 2 to 21 days after exposure, and the fatality rate is around 40 percent. At the moment there is no approved vaccine or treatment for this type of Ebola virus. This past week, scientists at Oxford University in the UK said they are working to develop a new vaccine for this Ebola virus that could be ready for clinical trials by the end of August. This is the 17th Ebola outbreak recorded in the DRC since the virus was first identified a half century ago in 1976. 

This latest Ebola outbreak is especially worrisome not only because there is not yet a vaccine for the Ebola Bundibugyo virus, but the outbreak is occurring in an area affected by high levels of insecurity, population displacement, and frequent cross-border movement. All of these factors increase the risk of transmission. The outbreak is also happening in the aftermath of steep aid cuts that have weakened local health systems and left many humanitarian agencies scrambling for resources. As more suspected cases have emerged this past week, the WHO revised its own risk assessment. Risk in the DRC is assessed as very high, at the regional level high, while at the global level the risk remains low

Hantavirus outbreak update: This past week the World Health Organization announced another confirmed hantavirus case in a crew member who left the MV Hondius cruise ship and is isolating in the Netherlands. We are now at 12 confirmed cases, and three deaths from this specific outbreak.

World Health Assembly: This past week the World Health Assembly met for the 79th time in Geneva, Switzerland, under the theme of “Reshaping global health: a shared responsibility.” The Assembly is the decision-making body of the World Health Organization (WHO) and brings together representatives from its 193 member states. The United States withdrew from the WHO in January of this year, 12 months after it gave its official notice to the world body. After a full week of meetings and discussions, WHO members agreed on 20 decisions and passed 13 resolutions on a variety of health issues including stroke, liver disease, tuberculosis, antimicrobial resistance, diagnostic imaging, emergency care, haemophilia, precision medicine and radiation. Find out more here

What We Are Reading and Listening To:

An Ebola outbreak in Central Africa (Public Health on Call podcast)

The hantavirus outbreak is a tragedy - and a good data source (The Economist)

This Ebola outbreak could turn out to be one of the worst ever (NYT Instagram Reel)

Colorado charts its own course on vaccines amid federal pullback (KFF Health News)

The food recalls alerts issued over salmonella concerns this month (The Hill)