Force of Infection is now on the summer schedule, meaning national Outbreak Outlook updates are only available to paid subscribers. The winter schedule, including the free national version, will resume in October. To continue receiving reports during the summer, please upgrade to paid.
Influenza-like illness
Influenza-like illness (ILI) activity is exceptionally low, with just 0.9% of outpatient visits for fever and a cough or sore throat. This is lower than at the same point during any of the last six seasons. Typically, initial increases in ILI coincide with the start of the school year, but I haven't seen that yet. The flu season usually does not start in earnest until October or November.
Although flu shots are becoming available at local drugstores, I suggest holding off for now. Immunity tends to wane after several months, so it is better to time your shot closer to the start of the season. I aim for October.
Activity is low across all age groups. As always, children ages 0-4 have the highest rate at 3.1%, followed by the 5-24 group at 1.2%. School-age kids typically show increases first, so I'll be watching that group closely in the weeks ahead. All adult age groups remain well below 1%.
Severe illness is extremely low.
Covid-19
We are currently in the summer Covid-19 season. While all metrics are rising, overall activity remains low to moderate across most of the country. (You can listen to me talk about the season so far on NPR, if that is of interest.)
National Trend
At the national level, Covid-19 test positivity is rising and currently stands at 3.7%. This is much lower than the 10.9% positivity rate reported at the same point last year. Although widespread home testing makes positivity rates harder to interpret than during the early days of the pandemic, I still find it a useful leading indicator.
Emergency department (ED) visits for Covid-19 are stable at 0.3%, well below the 1.5% to 2% range seen last August. Infants and children aged 1 to 4 are the most affected, accounting for 1% to 1.5% of visits. In contrast, ED visits for adults, including older adults, remain below 0.5%. However, adults aged 65 and older continue to have the highest rates of hospitalization, which measures more severe illness.