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6 min read National Report

Outbreak Outlook - National - Jan 4

Flu very high, Covid-19 and RSV rising

Outbreak Outlook - National - Jan 4

Quick editorial note: Just like last week, CDC is data is delayed due to the holiday, so I am providing an update today based on data from a subset of states. I will be back with the regional newsletters later this week, once national data has updated.

Respiratory Diseases

Influenza-like illness

Flu is very high. In many states this past week, more than 1 in 10 trips to the ED were for flu-like illness. Many states are nearing peak activity, and a few appear to be past peak.

South

Flu is very high and rising in the South. Nearly 1 in 10 ED visits is due to flu in Texas. For those aged 5-11, a very high 28% of ED visits is due to flu, closely followed by ~25% for those aged 0-1 and those aged 0-4. In Maryland, 11.3% of ED visits are due to ILI, and 1 in 3 tests are coming back positive for flu. In Alabama, flu continues its very steep rise, and now accounts for nearly 1 in 10 visits to the ED. In Kentucky, ED visits are high and rising (7%), and hospitalizations more than doubled this past week to 5% of all admissions.

Flu activity in TEXAS. Source.

West

Range of activity across the West. In Colorado, nearly 1 in 10 ED visits are due to flu, as are more than 1 in 10 hospital admissions (13.3%). This is far higher than last year’s peak of 8.6% of hospital admissions. Flu is also very high and rising in Alaska, with ILI at 13%, and in Idaho, outpatient visits for flu climbed to 12%.

Hawaii may have passed its peak — test positivity and ED visits both declined this week. However, rates are still very high: flu accounted for 8.5% of ED visits, and hospitalizations continue to climb (6.2% of all admissions).

In contrast, despite steep increases, flu is still below the seasonal threshold in Montana, with ILI accounting for just 2.3% of ED visits.

Respiratory illness activity in COLORADO. Source.

Midwest

Still climbing. Flu is very high in Illinois, accounting for 8.2% of ED visits and 5.3% of hospitalizations. It is steeply rising in Kansas, doubling this past week to 6.2% of ED visits. There was a sharp increase in hospitalizations in Ohio this past week, though overall flu hospitalizations remain fairly low.

Flu activity in KANSAS. Source.

Northeast

High activity, with a few states at or just past peak. In New Jersey, 1 in 10 ED visits are due to flu, surpassing the peaks of the prior two seasons. Test positivity is slowing down though, suggesting that the state is at or near peak. 3.1% of ED visits for flu are resulting in hospitalizations — about double as many at last year’s peak.

In New York, activity may have hit and passed peak: new cases decreased this past week across the state. And in New York City, ED visits for flu decreased slightly, to 7.9%.

In Pennsylvania, ED visits nearly doubled this past week, to 6.8%. And in Maine, flu activity is on par with last year’s peak — 12% of ED visits are due to ILI. In Massachusetts, activity is also high and rising, with 9.6% of ED visits due to flu.

Flu activity in MASSACHUSETTS. Source.

COVID-19

Covid-19 remains low, but is rising. In Alabama, ED visits have increased slightly for the past several weeks, but are still very low, at 0.5%. Similarly, in Hawaii, ED visits have more than doubled, rising from 0.1 to 0.3% in the past week, and test positivity jumped from 0.5% to 1.2%. And in New York it has steadily risen to 1% of ED visits. Covid is also low but increasing in Colorado, Idaho, Kentucky, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania,

Covid-19 looks to be a bit more active in Maine, where ED visits with Covid-19-like illness have risen to 3.4%. Similarly, in Montana, Covid-19 cases are nearly on par with the previous two peaks of the past year (in March and September). And in Kansas, Covid-19 is about has high as it has been at any point in the past year. ED visits are up to 1.3% (they peaked at 1.4% last February).

Activity remains low and stable in Alaska and Texas.


RSV

RSV is moderate and rising. This is the case in Hawaii, where ED visits are at 0.5%, and in Texas, where rates are up to ~0.7%. In Alabama, RSV is increased slightly to 0.7% of ED visits, and in New Jersey to 0.6%. Hospitalizations in New Jersey are now equivalent to last year’s peak (0.3% of ED visits).

In Alaska, the number of people testing positive for RSV has increased notably over the past couple weeks — from 53 in mid-December up to 112 this past week. It is now high enough to have reached the state’s seasonal baseline for elevated activity. Similarly, in Montana, it is has surpassed the threshold for statewide circulation, and is now at 4.2% test positivity.

RSV continues to slowly rise in Colorado (~0.2% of ED visits), Kansas (0.2% of ED visits), New York City (~0.4% ED visits), and Pennsylvania (0.4% of ED visits).

RSV remains low and flat in Idaho and Massachusetts.


Norovirus

Norovirus continues its upward climb. In the Midwest, Northeast, and South, norovirus wastewater activity is high and rising. In the West, wastewater activity remains more moderate, but is also rising.

Noro is extremely contagious — this is where hand washing regularly (with soap and water, hand sanitizer is not particularly effective), avoiding touching your face, avoiding communal bowls of food/drink, and wiping down surfaces with soap and water or a diluted bleach solution can really help with prevention.


Food recalls

The following foods are being recalled because they are contaminated. Please check your cupboards and throw out any of these items:

New:

Previously Reported:


In other news


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A Marine by George Inness. From the Art Institute of Chicago.