Outbreak Outlook

Last updated on 27 May 2024

Summer Plans: As summer approaches and data on respiratory diseases dwindles, I am moving to my off-season schedule. For the summer months, I’ll be combining weekly updates into a single report for paid subscribers. Expect these updates to be less detailed until the fall, at which point I will return to my normal publishing schedule, including a free national version. Free subscribers will continue to receive other essays and posts during the summer months, but I won’t be posting as often.

Book Announcement: Last week, I announced that I have a new book coming out in October! Your responses were encouraging, and I’m grateful. If you’re interested, you can preorder the book here.

ILI

Influenza-like illness is where we expect it to be this time of year: low. Very few people are headed to the doctor for influenza-like illness in any region. Washington DC’s rate of outpatient visits for ILI has finally started to decline - but it is still at 4.4%, well above where it usually is this time of year.

Its neighbors, however, have not reported notable increases and are still quite low. Hospitalizations for influenza remain very low and are stable or declining, with rates at or below 0.5 hospitalizations per 100,000 population in all 14 reporting states.

Influenza-like illness in the U.S. Source.

COVID-19

The springtime reprieve from Covid-19 continues — though wastewater data hint that this might be changing.

Very few people are ending up at the emergency department due to Covid-19. Nearly every state is reporting what the CDC defines as ‘minimal’ levels of ED visits for Covid-19 (i.e., <1.5% of ED visits), and most states are reporting well under that level, with rates more in the 0.3 or 0.5% range. The exception is Hawaii, which is reporting a rate of 1.7%. Hospitalizations also remain very low, with rates ranging from 0.1in North Carolina to 2.1 hospitalizations per 100,000 in California.

While wastewater levels remain minimal, there have now been a few consecutive weeks of slight increases at the national level. However, the two wastewater data sources I use disagree about which region is driving this trend. CDC is reporting a rapid increase in the West, where levels have more than doubled in the past two weeks, as well as a more minor uptick in the South. Biobot tells a slightly different story, with slight increases in the Midwest and Northeast, no change in the West, and a slight decline in the South.

I will be watching in the next few weeks to see if and where we start to see changes in ED visits or hospitalizations.

National Wastewater Surveillance System for SARS-CoV-2. Source.

Stomach Bugs

Bleh. Norovirus test positivity increased again nationally to 9.5%. This was driven by increases in the Midwest - which jumped from 8.9% to 12.1% after declining for a couple weeks - and the West which increased to 9.7% from 7.2% last week. In contrast, rates in the Northeast and South are lower (4.8 and 6.2%, respectively) and declining.

Food recalls

The following foods are being recalled because they are contaminated. Please check your cupboards and throw out any of these items:

New

Palmer Candy sweet treats sold at WalMart, HyVee, Target, Dollar General. Affected items include Caramel Swirl Pretzels, Cookies & Cream Yummy Chow, Munchy Medley, and others (more info)

Previously reported:

Great Value chia seeds (more info)
Yogurt covered pretzels by Western Mixers Produce & Nuts, Inc. (more info)
White-coated candy sold by Palmer Candy Company of Sioux City, Iowa (more info)
HyVee Cream Cheese (more info)
Planters Honey Roasted Peanuts and Deluxe Lightly Salted Mixed Nuts (more info)
California Shelled Walnuts, Organic Light Halves and Pieces (more info)
Trader Joe’s 50% Less Salt Roasted & Salted Whole Cashews (more info)
If you have food allergies, you may wish to review these FDA safety alerts and USDA alerts for foods with undeclared allergens.

In Other News

Today’s edition is abbreviated for the Memorial Day holiday. See you next week!