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4 min read National Report

Outbreak Outlook - National - March 1

Flu plateau, RSV hospitalizations rise, Covid low

Outbreak Outlook - National - March 1

Force of Infection is trusted by 45,000+ readers to track flu, Covid-19, RSV, norovirus, food recalls, and more. Paid subscribers receive regional editions (October–March) and year-round reports. Free subscribers receive the national edition during flu season.

Influenza-like illness

New month, same flu. Despite some slight decreases, we are still stuck on a plateau stretching back to mid-January. Outpatient visits are holding steady at 4.4%, and about half of the states continue to report high or very high activity. It’s not uncommon for the season to run this long, but it does feel unfortunate given how high this season’s January peak was.

There were slight decreases in outpatient ILI for each age group. (Looking hard for a silver lining here.) The youngest kids continue to head to the doctor the most often for flu-like illness: 11.7% of those aged 0-4. For those 5-24, outpatient visits for fever and cough or sore throat were at 8.4%, and were <4% for all other groups.

Emergency department (ED) visits decreased slightly to 3.2% nationally from 3.5% the week prior. ED visits are about the same in the Midwest, West, and South at a little over 3%. The Northeast is doing a bit better, and ED visits there have declined to around 2%. Hospitalizations are still elevated at 3.0 hospitalizations per 100,000, but are slowly declining.

Flu B continues to account for a greater proportion of cases, and now accounts for a majority (55.1%) of clinical lab samples, and nearly a third (28.9%) of public health lab samples. Flu B often ramps up in the springtime, after flu A has faded.


Regional editions are wrapping up for the season soon (more info on that to come). Paid subscribers will continue receiving the summer report, which contains updates on Covid-19, norovirus, food recalls, and more throughout the off-season. Free subscribers get occasional posts, with the free national edition returning next October when flu season resumes.


COVID-19

Covid-19 activity remains fairly low nationally. ED visits held stable at 0.6% this past week. Wastewater activity has been moderate for the past couple months nationally.

The Midwest continues to see higher activity than anywhere else, but even there activity is declining. ED visits have declined to a little under 1% for the region. Both the Northeast and South have ED visits ~0.7%. The West is doing particularly well, with ED visits down to ~0.4%. More severe illness, i.e., hospitalizations, are also holding steady at a fairly low 1.4 hospitalizations per 100,000. All told, activity is fine but not fantastic.


RSV & Other Bugs

RSV: Activity continues to be fairly high and rising. ED visits for RSV held steady at 0.6%. RSV test positivity is still going up, now at 8.6%. This is higher than it has been all season, but still a bit below last year’s peak. Hospitalizations continue to rise, reaching 3.2 hospitalizations per 100,000 this past week.

Activity is slightly higher in the West and Midwest, where ED visits are around 0.7%. Hospitalizations, however, are highest in the Northeast, at about 3.4. Things are improving a bit in the South, which has the lowest ED visit rate and hospitalizations decreased this past week to under 2.0 hospitalizations per 100,000 people.

Other bugs:

These are less-common causes of cold- and flu- symptoms. Surveillance for these pathogens is not very comprehensive, so we have only broad trends to analyze.


Norovirus

Norovirus activity is very high. This is about the time of year when I expect rates to slowly start declining, and we did see a slight dip this past week in test positivity, to 14% nationally.

Hang in there!


Food recalls

The following foods are being recalled because they are contaminated. Please check your cupboards and throw out any of these items:

New:

Previously Reported:


In other news

Workmen at Carrara by John Singer Sargent 1911. From the Art Institute of Chicago.