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Influenza-like illness
Outpatient visits to the doctor for fever and either cough or sore throat, known as influenza-like illness or ILI, rose again this week from 1.1% to 1.3%. Test positivity for influenza is rising as well, and emergency department (ED) visits ticked up slightly from 0.1% to 0.2% at the national level. We remain firmly in the off season and activity is categorized as minimal, but we are definitely seeing the effects of back to school season, with week-over-week increases across several metrics.
The Southern region in particular is seeing increasing activity, with Florida, Georgia, and Texas all over 2% for outpatient ILI. These states often signal new trends.
Children ages 0 to 4 are most affected, with outpatient ILI now at 4.2%, up from a recent low of 3.1%. Seasonal peaks can reach 20%, so we're still in excellent shape, but there is increasing activity. People ages 5 to 24 are at 2.1%, and older age groups are at or below 1.1%.
COVID-19
National Trend
Covid-19 activity continues to rise with emergency department visits now at 0.6%, up from a recent low of 0.1%. However, we remain below last summer's peak, meaning this season is milder than what we saw last year, when ED visits peaked around 1.7%.
CDC's Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics still estimates that Covid-19 activity is rising in nearly every state, with a few exceptions in the South. Activity is stable in Louisiana and Mississippi and likely growing in Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia. Personally, I'm not seeing those signs in the data just yet, but perhaps in the weeks ahead.