Force of Infection is now on the summer schedule, meaning national Outbreak Outlook updates are available only to paid subscribers. The winter schedule, including the free national version, will resume in October. To continue receiving reports during the summer, please upgrade to paid.
Influenza-like illness
Another week of increases. The percentage of visits to the doctor that are for fever and cough or sore throat (also known as outpatient influenza-like illness, or ILI) rose again this week to 1.5%, up from 1.3% the week prior. We remain well below the 3.1% threshold that marks the start of flu season.
Most of the recent increases are in children: outpatient ILI in children ages 0-4 is now 4.6%, up from a recent low of 3.1%. People ages 5-24 have seen increases with outpatient ILI rising from 1.3% to 2.3%.
The Southern region is seeing the most increase in activity, with outpatient ILI now at 1.8%, up from 1.7% last week. Florida, Georgia, and Texas lead the region with 2.3-2.5% outpatient ILI. Emergency department visits are highest in the South as well, though still very low at 0.3%. Other regions are at or below 1.5%, thought I note that outpatient ILI in California is on the high side at 2.4%.
COVID-19
National Trend
Test positivity for Covid-19 has leveled off at around 5.6%. Emergency department (ED) visits for Covid-19 are at 0.6% for the second week in a row, and CDC Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics now estimates that Covid-19 activity is not changing or declining in 15 states. Taken together, this suggests to me that we are at or just past the peak summer season. If I’m correct that we have seen the peak, it will have been a mild season overall. Typically, activity declines a bit but remains elevated through the fall, before peaking again around the new year.